Logistic

Logistic Regression

$Y_i \sim Ber(\pi_i)$, $f(y_i)=\pi_i^{y_i} (1-\pi_i)^{1-y_i}$

$$\begin{align*} & g(\mu)=g(\pi)= \ln{\frac{\pi_i}{1-\pi_i}} = \mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta} \\\\\\ \Rightarrow \ & \pi_i = \frac{\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X} \boldsymbol{\beta}) }{1+\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X} \boldsymbol{\beta})} \end{align*}$$$$\begin{align*} L & =\prod_{i=1}^n \pi_i^{y_i} (1-\pi_i)^{1-y_i} \\\\\\ & = \prod_{i=1}^n \left(\frac{\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta}) }{1+\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta})} \right)^{y_i} \left(\frac{1 }{1+\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta})} \right)^{1-y_i} \end{align*}$$$$ \sum_{i=1}^n \left[ y_i \mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta} -\ln(1+\texttt{exp}(\mathbb{X}_i \boldsymbol{\beta})) \right] $$

MLE of $\boldsymbol{\beta}$ doesn’t has closed form.

Odds ratio

SexDiseaseNo diseaseProbability of diseaseOdds
male217162$\frac{217}{217+162} = 0.573$$\frac{0.573}{1-0.573} = 1.342$
female105136$\frac{105}{105+136} = 0.436$$\frac{0.436}{1-0.436} = 0.773$
$$\begin{align*} \frac{\text{odds(disease for male)}}{\text{odds(disease for female)}} = \frac{1.342}{0.773} = 1.74>1 \end{align*}$$

代表男性患疾病的機率比女性來的高

損失函數

$$\begin{align*} -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \left[ y_i \ln p_i + (1 - y_i) \ln (1 - p_i) \right], \quad y_i = 0 \text{ or } 1 \end{align*}$$$$\begin{align*} -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \sum_{c=1}^k y_{i,c} \ln p_{i,c} \end{align*}$$

假如現在有3個類別

Sample$y_i$$p_i$
1(1, 0, 0)(0.7, 0.2, 0.1)
2(0, 1, 0)(0.1, 0.6, 0.3)
3(0, 0, 1)(0.2, 0.3, 0.5)
$$\begin{align*} \left( -\ln 0.7 - \ln 0.6 - \ln 0.5 \right) \times \frac{1}{3} \approx 0.52 \end{align*}$$

誤差

MAE

$$\begin{align*} -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \left| y_i-\hat{y}_i \right| \end{align*}$$

MSE

$$\begin{align*} -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \left( y_i-\hat{y}_i \right)^2 \end{align*}$$

RMSE

$$\begin{align*} -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \sqrt{\left( y_i-\hat{y}_i \right)^2 } \end{align*}$$
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